Disclaimer: this article contains the words “Michael Pachter”. Some readers might find these words disturbing. Proceed at your own risk. It’s no secret that Wii U sales have been struggling. While things are getting better (such as selling over 100,000 units in Japan in just one week), it’s clear that Nintendo needs to do more to boost sales. We recently reported that Wii U sales have reached 4.3 million worldwide to date, and that Nintendo officially expects to sell 9 million in the current fiscal year, which amounts to a massive 2 million consoles from now on until April 2014. Game industry analyst Michael Pachter isn’t as optimistic as Nintendo. In a recent note to investors, he said that they “do not expect Nintendo’s Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016”. By comparison, he expects Sony to sell 37 million PlayStation 4 consoles, and Microsoft to sell 29 million Xbox One consoles by 2016. While Nintendo has been doing a better job at promoting the Wii U over the past few months, there is still a lot of work to be done. It’s also become clear that there is a lot of pressure on Nintendo to release quality games, as many third party developers have yet to embrace the system. But there’s no denying that things are getting better for the Wii U. Recent hits such as Pikmin 3, Zelda Wind Waker HD, and Super Mario 3D World have all resulted in Wii U sales spikes. In the end, Pachter does recognize that there are a lot of factors at play, such as pricing. He added “Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast”. Indeed. Source local_offer Nintendo wii u wii u sales stars Further Reading Earthlock backers will get Switch version if it ever happens Zelda: Breath of the Wild Deluxe guide for $48 on Amazon Nintendo shares up 20% since Switch launch What's your dumbest death in Breath of the Wild? Mario Kart 8 Switch vs Wii U comparison Miyamoto shot down this stamina regen idea for BoTW Josiah Parsons Which side is the man on for crying out loud! uPadWatcher D’bag Pachter strikes again! He’s never right. ZeldaFanzzzz With Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros coming out……pretty sure the system will sell more than 20 million. Nathan C. And don’t forget about Bayonetta 2 and X. Ernie Sanguyo Not to mention Zelda and many more games by 2016. All I gotta say is that in 2016 Wii U has more better games. lonewolf88 mario kart wii sold 30 million 😛 Laud http://www.vgchartz.com/game/6968/mario-kart-wii/ 34million 😛 NintenScience lol, vgchartz Laud Yeah, I hate them too but they’re accurate after everything has passed because they get corrected a billion times. NintenScience And we got downvotes because we mentioned VG Chartz, xddd readypembroke Shut up and have my upvote! Mercurio2054 nop, 22 million physical and 14 digital (^-^) ( downloaded) RyuNoHadouken doubt it…those games wont sell more than a million copies a piece….and thats stretching it rp17 Nah I think it will sell about 20 million… by the end of 2014! Daniel Gonzalez Sarcasm. I love it. Magnus Eriksson I think by 2016 Wii U will be a rare collectible as its discontinued in march 2014. Magnus Eriksson Then they have to hurry up. Everything points to the direction of a discontinuation in March 2014 :/ Mercurio2054 that were the prediction of trutheller ? Rinslowe Lol… Rich Garriques this is why nintendo is confident cause they know mario kart and smash bros are system sellers ElladanCZ How come anyone still cares about this idiot. @JohnKinsley Why do you even post what he says, everybody knwos his guesses are simply random and have nothing to do with reality? ScrewAttack Because Kinsley too is a doomwhore who loves a bit of Nintendohate. Read pretty much any of his “news” posts. ElladanCZ Well, I agree, but then again why does he work for a nintendo-console site? Perhaps he should switch to ps4daily.com where they will love the doom articles. ScrewAttack Only thing that comes to mind is, the same reason trolls keep coming here. Some glee in irritating others. Now we’ve got Ashley and Zorpix, and probably others, we really don’t need this guy pissing all over our console of choice on a daily basis, he’s dead weight. Daniel Gonzalez Relax. ScrewAttack I’m not nearly as emotional as you think :p I just think the guy is a waste of space here, if all he wants to do is bash the thing. I don’t go and stand in an Apple store and tell everyone how shitty their products are, despite that being the general gist of my opinion. Daniel Gonzalez I have to disagree there. I get that you hate the guy,but that’s a bit harsh I think. 😛 I think he’s like this to bring a different point of view to the site. If anything, I think he could care less if people hate him. Call him the Michael Pachter of WiiUDaily I guesss. People hate the guy, yet they continue to read his stuff just to continue to post on how much they hate and wish he would gtfo. Just a way to look at it. ScrewAttack It’s not even that I have anything other than dislike, but I don’t go for a coffee at Starbucks and expect to get a coke instead, if you get me. I’d be able to avoid his articles all together if he’d list his name under it like Ashley does hers ;p ScrewAttack It’s not like I do hate the guy, I just don’t go to Starbucks and expect to be served a coke, if you get me. I’d be able to avoid his posts all together if he listed his name as author at the top like Ashley does. But I suppose there’s no avoiding it wherever you go. The whole industry is infested with fanboys and bias, incredibly unprofessional. Sdudyoy This guy may annoy people, but this is His job, I still think he’s wrong, but attacking him for doing His job is kinda stupid, what I don’t understand is why does everyone think that His words are worth posting on every Wii U related site, (At least the ones I go to), he should just be ignored. Daniel Gonzalez People love controversy. It’s that simple. Atmanand singh When i first read the title i shouted at the analyst “eat ur own balls”. When i realised it was patcher i laughed that he did not have one. Jason I love the disclaimer at the beginning, I missed it on my first read. ShilaquilOneal Lets not forget his great prediction about game consoles back in 2009: (March 24, 2009) “I think we’ve seen the last generation of consoles,” Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. “Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage (not to be confused with Wii U, Pachter meant a regular Wii with HD capabilities), but Sony and Microsoft probably won’t release another console. That’s because there’s just no more money in it, and third parties won’t want it either.” It’s 2013 and we already have 3 new game consoles on the scene (Wii U, PS4 and Xbone). And Pachter is currently making prediction about said consoles (see article). And just for the record, Pachter earlier this year revised his prediction about there being no more consoles in “the future”. He now says that THIS generation of consoles is the last one. Will you believe him now? ScrewAttack How does this jackass even keep his job? Riley Preator I suppose that on his desk he has a sign that says. “I analyze, now pay me.” Guesty Pooh! More like: “Michael Pachter: AnalCyst.” Michael Hancock Weird joke, bro. nin-10-doughfan controversy! Daniel Gonzalez Controversy sells the big bucks, not honest opinions! Yousif Alromaithi They love this jackass. This guy does take the risk for other people fault. I think he is a jackass combined with being an ignorant bastard who does not when to shut his mouth. Sdudyoy Although I don’t agree with him, I doubt He means any of what He says, He just makes money and doesn’t care what comes out of His mouth. Yousif Alromaithi Yeah other parties give him money because of his stupidity. Petri Real Nostradamus this guy is. Doom of Nintendo is almost as often predicted as end of the world, and fall of the internet. “Oh, it didn’t happen? Not to worry, I have next date for you ready and handy” Is this guy supposed to be an analyst, or a fortune teller? NintendoNoob I don’t know about you but Michael Pachter should just quit and stop being a jackass. Merry Kissmyass, Pachter Petri If you made your money with it, would you? Cole Brinley No I wouldn’t. I’d rather earn my money without being ignorant jackass. NintendoNoob Probably, but I would say logical stuff Petri If spewing illogical crap out of my mouth would feed my family, I could do that. DragonSilths 1 will leave after this gen. Money wise Sony could fall and be gone. Microsoft could leave after the Xbox One fails and they will put their games like Halo on PC. But one will go.  Oh great and powerful DragonSilths, is there but any choice we have to prevent the prophecy? DragonSilths I like the sarcasm. But all I was saying was true. Sure it could be prevented. Microsoft could stay even if the Xbox One fails they are that stupid. And if Sony can preform a miracle and recover the company then they would stay aswell. But as it sits right now, I highly doubt all 3 will be in the 9th gen. Javy G It’s funny you say that. My neighborhood Target, which is a high volume store because of the downtown is located near the area, has been having XBones instock for almost a week and a half. The Wii U ‘s are selling just as quickly as the PS4’s. Especially around these holidays I’ve expecting these XBones to sell out. Told my bud that said he wanted one but as soon as he looked at the price, he decided he rather wait for the PS4 and later to purchase a console. The Wii U has been out of stock itself but get restocked the week after. How do I know? I was Christmas shopping this month and the store is right down the street. readypembroke Something somewhat similar at my local walmart. Matthew Stapleton I work for my local Wal-Mart and we have never run out of X1’s. We sell more Wii Us and PS4s. We have lots of back stock of the Spybox at any given time. fireheartis1 Hey I work for my local Walmart as well, and the same thing is happing there lol. The PS4 and Wii U’s sell pretty quickly and we have 10 Xbones on hand and in stock. Man that’s some funny crap right there, and this Patcher guy is always talking doom and gloom about Nintendo. What a joke this guy is for real. readypembroke One time at my Walmart, they sold out of Wii U’s and did not see a single one there until like 2 weeks later and they only had one behind the glass while there were 6 Xbox Ones behind the glass. Last time I knew there was 1 Xbox One and that was like 3 days ago. Matthew Stapleton Last night I sold the first one since before the holiday. Its definitely not hurting our 360 sales any. The games aren’t moving either. They keep saying the PS4 and X1 sales are about even, but not where I live lol. Jack5221 Im currently in the US right now, and literally every store I have been too has had at least 10 Xbox Ones. Meanwhile they have 0 PS4s and little to no Wii Us at all. I visited big stores like Target, Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Frys electronics, and even Gamestop. RyuNoHadouken consoles are going the way of the dinosaurs…there will not be a PS5 or Nextbox…PC gaming is taking over…there are more active Steam users than Live or PSN..what do you think it will be like in 10 years? PS4/WiiU I don’t think so Shy Guy How many of those Steam users are using Steam to buy AAA titles though? I love Steam but I find that the majority of my purchases are mostly indie games, also I’m less likely to anticipate new titles for PC and stick to playing one or two games for ages (right now the only thing I play on my PC is Kerbal Space Program). Consoles aren’t going anywhere, but I do foresee a point where the line between home unit and portable will likely become nonexistent as consoles become something that is portable with the option of interfacing with larger displays. readypembroke Same here, the only non-indie games for me are?: Left 4 Dead 2, Counter-Strike 1.6 and Counter-Strike: Condition Zero and Team Fortess 2. I also got 5 Indie games: Cubemen, Blocks That Matter, Garry’s Mod, Snuggle Truck and Storm In A Tea Cup. lonewolf88 but! do you know what will end up happening? nintendo will say we didn’t allow console gaming to die back in the day why let it die now! and sooner then yah know it boom nintendo next gen system called the supermega nintendo entertainment center than will bomb local game stores and walmarts a like. and nintendo will save gaming again! i swear sooner or later something like that will happen for some reason nintendo always makes past stuff come back to the future… if thats true though D: they might make back to the future 4 nuuuuuuu! sorry had to but the rest is serious if pc gaming does the last console left will be a nintendo console to save console gaming. DragonSilths While there are a lot of Steam players, most would prefer to own a physical game. Instead of just buying 7GB of data. As long as Nintendo is around consoles will always exist. Daniel Gonzalez I don’t think Nintendo decides if consoles exist. The gamers decide if they exist since we keep them in business. I do agree with you on having a physical copy of a game is much more satisfying, but I do enjoy Steam. There are a lot of great indie games that I’ve played through it and even some AAA titles. Like your passion, though. 😛 DragonSilths Doesn’t matter if nobody buys the Nintendo systems, they will still make them. If only the people of Nintendo buy them so be it lol. Daniel Gonzalez If only the people of Nintendo buy them, they’ll lose even more money. I guess that’s the situation of the Ouya right now. 😛 Squid I thought you were going to say something about those two got out of the market before Nintendo. That’s what you shoulda said 😉 Mario Can’t say for sure. I can’t tell the future. Mercurio2054 and this website makes echo of this great predictor Nintendude Oh Pachter, how we love you. By love I mean laugh at you every time we hear your name. John That guy makes a living out of doom and gloom stories, with little or no analysis of anything.. Quite a nice cushy number when you think about it! Rich Garriques thank you so much for this comment. people just seem to believe everything these stupid analyst and reviewers say. and its getting upright ridiculous. fliadaloisio After reading “Michael Patcher”, i went back to the main page. Or is that or shut down the PC alltogether. 😀 PS4/WiiU then how’d u comment :O RyuNoHadouken .. Jack5221 It should say: Disclaimer, written by John Kinsley. Michael Hancock I’m still waiting for Banjo-Threeie, Jason. Diddy Kong Racing 2 & Jet Force Gemini 2, too. The Clockwork Being Thank you John for putting that disclaimer. Now Micheal Patcher says a lot of things. Remember when he said that the 3DS would be dead because of the mobile market. This guy keeps forgetting that the killer apps are coming next year. Mario Kart is a really big system seller. So is Smash Bros. Let’s not forget that Zelda game that will come late 2014/ early 2015. Plus people keep ignoring the constant climb of the Wii U in Japan. Sites like IGN and other gaming sites that post the Japanese charts weekly have for some reason not posted the recent one. You know the one with the NintenDominence. Now I am not saying that the climb will be constant to go up as to sell millions weekly but come on these charts show that when Nintendo delivers the games, sell are bound to happen. Mark my words in Japan once Mario Kart and Smash Bros come out at least 100K Wii Us will be sold in that week. Just to add the Wii U is doing fine in the US and Japan its only in the UK that it seems to be really stuggling. And I am tired of these double standards. They report when the Wii U’s lifetime sells is outsold in the UK by the XboxOne which obvious since that’s the X1’s territory but when the Wii U outsold the 360’s lifetime sells in Japan the Wii U’s territory that piece of news was ignored. Here is my analysis. By Jan there will be at least 5 millions Wii U sold worldwide readypembroke Don’t forget that he said that the Vita would destroy the 3DS!!!!!!!!! NintenScience …and yet, the Nintendo 3DS became one of Nintendo‘s most successfully sold handheld video game consoles… NINTENDOMINATION readypembroke At least it didn’t do a Virtual Boy!! NintenScience xd NintenScience Software sells hardware. jjbredesen … This man is the stupidest man i have ever heard of, jesus he makes me so frustrated! I respect opinions, but not when they are as stupid as this. The Wii U has sold about 5M by the end of this year, not 4,3 and this year has not been that good game. We have had a few good games at the end of the year and they have made the sales raise a lot. Next year we will have almost all of the heavy hitters. Mario Kart 8 is the game that will sell consoles it is a game for all audiences and will draw in a lot of casual gamers. We also have DK:TF and a bunch of other games coming early 2014. That is a great start. Then we have Smash Bros that will get all the hardcore Nintendo fans that have not yet bought a Wii U onboard. The rest of the year will have loads of great games like X and Hyrule Warriors will make it a system you want to buy, We also have lots of games that we have not seen yet, like Metroid, Star-Fox and Miyamotos new IP. I think we will get to see some of them at E3, and then we have Zelda U i don’t know when it will be released, but it will help the sales even more. The Wii U’s marketing is getting a lot better and Nintendo has said they will be a lot more agressive next year. So we do know that sales will never be as bad as this year, i think it will sell close to 10-20M next year, and close 10m in 2016. A lot of you may say that my numbers are to high, but i think this could be the case. I would say it will sell closer to 30M by the end of 2016. But that is just my opinion and i have proberly missed some stuff. LopsidedPasta I have to agree. 5 million in a year is anything but fantastic, but with only the occasional first party title and minimal advertising, combined with the lack of notable third party games, the Wii U sales have actually done pretty well. The challenge for Nintendo will be software sales for games OTHER than “the big ones” (i.e Smash, Mario Kart, Zelda, Metroid, and Mario). If Nintendo is able to leap that hurdle, this console generation just got a lot more interesting. If not… bad things may result. Nathan C. Didn’t Patcher also say the Vita would beat the 3DS? :/ LopsidedPasta http://www.ign.com/articles/2011/10/22/the-playstation-vita-is-set-to-succeed Read this if you want a good laugh! Nathan C. “For better or for worse, Vita will be pitted against the Nintendo 3DS. But the comparison doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, and even if you were to pit them against each other, Vita is still destined to sell better.” So much for that. XD Daniel Carvalho Sometimes, when I read bullshit on the Internet, I think it’s my English that isn’t as good as I thought it was. But then I realize the reason I don’t understand what I’m reading is because it actually doesn’t make any sense. I NEVER GET WHAT PACHTER TRIES TO SAY!!!“Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast”. He’s basically saying “If I’m wrong, I’m wrong!” Squid I was confused when he said “put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U” readypembroke That was stupid of Pachter to say that. WolfgangAmadeusMozart http://gamepodunk.ipbhost.com/uploads/gallery/album_8/gallery_4_8_206526.png Michael Pachter in a Nutshell Mario LOL! readypembroke The person who made that article is just a extreme Sony fanboy. He brags about the power of the system and stupendously brags about the second analog stick. The comments that the people make down below are hilarious to me. NintenScience lol readypembroke This one person made a very good point and here is that person’s comment: I generally like Colin Moriarty and you can tell he’s exceedingly intelligent, but man, this was just a blackhole of unchecked, wanton fanboyism. “Vita is still destined to sell better [than the 3DS].” “Vita is … echelons ahead of 3DS in terms of games … Comparing the two isn’t even really fair, as I’ve discussed before, and it’s a fallacy to continue to do so.” “The Nintendo 3DS is certainly not going to take the Vita out with N64 ports and tired, worn series.” “Nintendo is the least of Sony’s concerns these days. (referring specifically to the 3DS and Vita)” “The dedicated gaming handheld will die sometime in the future. But, as much as Nintendo is trying to prove otherwise, the future isn’t here yet.” Foot, meet Mouth. NintenScience “echelons”? readypembroke ech·e·lon noun plural noun: echelons 1. a level or rank in an organization, a profession, or society. “the upper echelons of the business world” synonyms:level, rank, grade, step, rung, tier, position, order More NintenScience I doubt Michael Pachter is aware of the definition of “echelon”. readypembroke He is probably dumber than my brother and that is bad. 😀 NintenScience haha readypembroke I wouldn’t be surprised if he dies in a car crash and then all the Nintendo people go WOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! C4 It’s funny why people can’t learn from the past, PSP sold like shit except in Japan. PSPgo doesn’t sell at all. Vita as a new brand doesn’t work, it’s still a portable PlayStation. Nintendo portables always sell, even models that seem to be redundant on first sight (try playing something text heavy on the GBA micro!) On the other hand the reason why people bought the Wii isn’t there on Wii U. Wii was something new wrt controls which immediately clicked for people (although motion controlled like shit without motion plus or the pointer). PS: I think every gamer who loves portables should own both 3DS and Vita. In an age of shitty mobile and tablet games we are spoiled with 2 great gaming portables. Jacob D. Taylor AMEN! I dislike the banter back and forth over one will die and go out of business. We can really look at this several ways: First, the Vita is pretty awesome. I don’t even have one and I think it’s classy. It’s something I wouldn’t be very shy to play in public, the 3ds I like better and LOVE its games better but I still like the Vita. There’s nothing wrong with liking games in general. This doesn’t have to be a poo slinging contest with one winner. Walmart or Target, which do you like better… go! No one is going to go burn down the building they dislike more. However, at the end of the day, the second view, is we’re ALL on the defense against those CRAPPY mobile games… I’m sure there are a handful out there, but I’ll tell y’all, I haven’t found one. Ridiculous garbage all of it. We should all stand up for the games we like and fight the true plague… garbage money thieving mobile games. Squid That’s funny. I’d consider 3DS system of the year actually. LopsidedPasta Yeah, but I think it’s more than that. The Vita did (and still does) have an advantage over the 3ds bc it has a second analog stick. The 3ds just has better games. readypembroke screw the second stick, I use the dpad! 😀 NintenScience The Nintendo 3DS has an accessory called the Circle Pad Pro. readypembroke Just commented on your IGN comment you did like 20 mins ago…. 😀 LopsidedPasta Yes. An accessory. Which makes the 3ds look like it has a tumor. That must be bought separately. That is only compatible with a few games. Because it’s an accessory, and no company can rely on customers having one.  The Vita’s analog stick is 8 directional. The 3DS’s has no notches and can go in any direction. lonewolf88 i’m gonna go slap some people with a butter sack at ign in a minute. readypembroke Can I watch? I’ll pay $2 to watch!!!! lonewolf88 make it 5! and you got a deal! readypembroke $2.01? The Clockwork Being Colin the SonyDrone article? Reading this article today would make anyone laugh so much tom Wow i have not laughed that hard in a long time! GABRIEL GARCIA JAJAJAJAJA I CAN’T BELIEVE HOW MANY STUPID PEOPLE ARE OUT THERE POOR OF THEM !!! NINTENDO IS THE CREATOR OF THE ART OF VIDEO GAMING FOLKS ! GET A WII U AND LIVE THE EXPERIENCE !!! Googs Thanks for the warning at the beginning of the article. I didn’t read any further than that. Daniel Carvalho Why not? It’s a good laugh… Bob Wilkerson Oh Look another John Kingsley negative Nintendo article and this one features the always wrong analyst Michael Pachter. Nothing to see here… Move along Jon Saw title, thought “must be John Kinsley” and was right. I stopped reading when it hit the author. jrob23 “Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast”. So…basically, I am trying to cover my ass when I am proven wrong. We get it Pachter, you clueless idiot. You can’t come out and make a definitive prediction. You instead want to make an outlandish statement and then cover your ass by saying if pricing, unannounced games, changes in consumer perceptions..heck, if anything changes then your assumptions may be wrong. What a joke!! Lusunup Of course a negative article like most from John.. Glitch256 wow. Journalism at its worst. CMB Not a bad article john, this one had a sense of humor and didn’t have that negative tone like the previous one. ICHI Though its badly written, apparently 4.3 + 2 = 9. I know what he was going for but he sounds idiotic. On top of that even Mr Pachter says should anything chang then the numbers will, well no spit! All of the accounted factors will change so there isn’t even a story or a point of making the statement. Its just dull. NintenScience Uh oh, I see the name Michael Pachter in this article… lol xddd Edit: Wii U Daily is almost the opposite of a website having a passion for the Wii U. nintendoeverything.com alwaysnintendo.com Edit: -1 votes? Sounds like John Kinsley is mad, hahahah Guest …and John Kinsley. robzombiesanus Nintendo, buy Capcom for exclusives (Marvel vs Capcom 4 or Resident Evil anyone?) so I don’t have to hear people whine anymore that Nintendo doesn’t make ‘mature’ games. Flawless Victory I want this to happen. Angel714 I agree. if this happens it would be epic 😀 NintenScience Yes. Also, “maturity” is subjective… Daniel Gonzalez I think all boxes should have the rating “WC” for “Who Cares?” Quick and simple if you ask me. readypembroke hey we got Bayonetta 2 coming!!!! Daniel Gonzalez Is that suppose to mean something? readypembroke Yeah, it means a game is coming and people will buy systems for it. I am not saying trillions of people will buy a Wii U for the game but some people will. Daniel Gonzalez I’m sure some people will, but this game isn’t going to be a system seller like Mario. Which I don’t believe it will move that many consoles. Not to be a party pooper, but I don’t see this game selling that big. I could be wrong, but I’m sticking with what I feel about it. Adam Howell Would it be good value for Nintendo? As it stands Capcom are struggling despite releasing games multiplatform. They would have to reorganise around making much lower budget games if they want to make money on a single platform. I can understand Nintendo being interested in buying up Megaman and Monster Hunter, should Capcom go bust, but buying a large and struggling company and then dramatically reducing the means in which they can make money is a very risky strategy. Sega would be an easier company for Nintendo to profit from, but they’re doing ok right now and might not be for sale. Yen If forcing hundreds of PIkmins into slavery and watching them get massacred by animals 100 times their size isn’t “mature”, I don’t know what is… rp17 I know that feel… Flawless Victory Michael Patcher again…pffft. lonewolf88 lalalallalalalalalallalalalaalallalalalallalalaalalalal! NintenScience rofl lonewolf88 hey well he is a troll to nintendo he just wants them to fail idk why so why even read the article when you don’t care for his onions i mean opinions. start calling them onions why? well look at the comment section hey guys up here! don’t cry about his opinion just don’t read it. unless you like to hear his opinions than go ahead and read them. C4 Uh 29 million for the Xbone and “under 20 million” for Wii U – if the Wii U is around~ 20 and the Bone around 29 I think we should reassess what success is. No one believes it can beat those corporate giants after the first year. PS4s marketing was better then one year of Nintendos… not that that is hard to achieve 😛 Still I woudn’t give anything about those predictions. As I said M3DW probably was the first real system seller, although games like Pikmin and W101 are (as) great they are simply not that accessable or interesting for a (large) part of the market. 3DS had system sellers like Mario Kart or Animal Crossing and already 2 or 3 Mario games at the right time (Wii U Marios except 3D World released when they already had to many Mario game in a relatively short time) devmiles if nintendo will continue their policy or own protective market or vision or whatever they are seriously lacking at this moment… they will end up being an excellent handheld game company but the exit door will be right there similar to what happened to sega. we can’t say yet the wii-u is a failure but nintendo’s vision and workout with this project is super poor..no one can deny that. after a year we have a handfull of games and more shitty VC titles to come… they should be ashamed of themselves…owyeah..more delay to come as well on games.. wii-u’s go for half the price they originally came and the 2nd hand market is full of bargains 150 euro’s or less. 3ds is top! wii-u sucks balls bigtime..some handfull of cool games you’ll get this for and let the rest be done by sony.. readypembroke Bitch please, you are a very bad and crappy troll and the only ones that sucks balls is you and maybe your mother too. You are are just as dumb as that Truthteller person that used to be on here. Go back to your lonely dungeon ho. P.S. Nintendo has been in this business for a long time. They battled Sega and some other companies so they know what to do. devmiles that’s one way to reply to a discussion.. (maybe at age 15 or so) so i don’t even take this serious as in discussion.. but we’ll see! NintenScience hater readypembroke Also they barely delayed any games at all. They only delayed like 3 games (Donkey Kong, Party U and Fit U) They got the Wii U planned out for next year. extremethunder “similar to what happened to Sega.” You do know Sega stopped making consoles because financially they could not afford it anymore right? Sega had back-to-back financial failures from Sega CD to Dreamcast. They were bleeding money till they finally could not afford it anymore. Nintendo on the other hand has only had 1 actual failure, Virtual Boy, which didn’t even put a dent into Nintendo. N64 & Gamecube, while they didn’t sell as much as the competitors, they still profited from them. Whether or not Wii U ends up being a failure when this now current gen ends, so long as Nintendo profits from it they will continue. Inorder for Nintendo to back out of the console run, you would need a heck of a lot more failures that financially hurt them. devmiles i agree on the financial part, nintendo is a super wealthy company. mind that pokemon saved them in the n64 era. i probably have more nintendo games and items than most of the people here and i’m not here to discuss about the great moments i had or have with nintendo but at this moment as a customer i’m not very pleased or amused what happened in 2013 and since the arrival of the wii-u. it’s true, nintendo can have it financially..but sony seems to do what nintendoesn’t Adam Howell That’s where things seem to be heading ATM. Reaching a bit over 10 million by 2015, and getting just under 20 million by 2016. Compared to how badly the Wii U did in it’s first year that’s still an improvement. But things change: The Wii U might have such a such a great year in 2014 that everyone takes notice like they did with the 3DS this year. They might hit dynamite like they did with Wii Fit and Wii sports and sell a ton of consoles off it. They might release a better, cheaper VR headset than the one Sony is expected to release. And get a share of that market. FPS fatigue might set in and the masses might just notice that Nintendo games are more entertaining than all the rest. Or they could be overshadowed by the ps4 so much that the Wii U forever remains a niche item. jhell it will sale more then that hater Ryan Jordan love the disclaimer lol Cesar Barroso well, it was 20 millions lifetime the first prediction. So now is down to 2016, if things keep getting better for WiiU will it be down to 2014? Lassassino thats a fuck ton greengecko007 Maybe, or maybe not. I honestly don’t care how well the Wii U sells. As long as Nintendo makes money off of it, they will be fine, and as long as they support it with great games, I will be happy with my purchase. It’s really that simple. Virus6 I’ve said that forever. Look at the Gamecube. Great support and great games and made Nintendo some money… but terrible sales greengecko007 Unfortunately that’s not enough for the fanboys that are all into console wars. Rinslowe There be logic! Bob Singh Kinsley, your getting better. This was a nice article. Phillip Fauble This guy is as clueless as a squirrel crossing the street. I don’t understand why people promote anything he says. Still though…. funny read. Joey I still disagree with him…it’s Michael Pachter again. GABRIEL GARCIA I dont even going to read this stupid article!!! It must be johns crap !!!! Get a job bro !!! Virus6 We should just start calling him Nancy, because he’s one hell of a negative one… GABRIEL GARCIA Your articles sucks John !!! YOU SUCK!!!! NkoSekirei pachter sucks he flip flops way too much wiimenonowiiu I did not know this was the bull s#@& daily site DragonSilths So he did survive Christmas… Dell Goodman Another Patcher article, must be a slow week for Wii U News, to result in posting this. Logan Waltz Why does this site still post nonsense from this joker? Has he ever been right about anything? readypembroke Maybe about the Vita beating the 3DS……… HE WISHES!!!!!!!!!!!!! Deadpool U Well someone obviously got coal under their tree….. Squid That’s bull, he probably thinks the vita will sell more than the 3DS. Oh wait, he did. D-Man It’s Michael Patcher, so who cares? Skelterz This guys a fucking two-bit clairvoyant lol, In all honesty i can see mario kart 8 shifting 3 million units and smash bros shifting around 2 million thats five right there by summer or at least autumn 2014 and who knows what X will do to the the wii u install base as well as some great 3rd party titles such as watchdogs & project cars there’s a good chance we could see double the amount of sales in 2014 than we did this year purely because it seems nintendo has found there feet slightly and there on the right track by E3 2014 they’ll have fantastic momentum with games like MK and smash, Great communities in miiverse and the e-shop will be in a better state we may see classics like chrono trigger and some HD N64 & GC titles. E3 2014 the legend of Zelda reveal WII U sales after that my prediction = 15 – 20 million. Madmagican *sigh* Pachter, you’re predicting gaming crashes again We’ve already gone through this shit -___- iamserious The last paragraph is the only sensible part of this entire post. Daniel Carvalho Alright, let’s play on Pachter’s game; here’s my prevision: The Wii U has seen some really low sales for over a long period, but that changed when Nintendo launched most of the delayed initial line-up titles, such as Pikmin 3 and Wonderful 101. Sales didn’t skyrocket as Nintendo’s marketing on the Wii U wasn’t nearly enough to clear people’s misunderstandings up until a few weeks ago, with the latest Wii U Commercial, which should’ve probably cleared up the misunderstanding by now. Within that scenario, I foresee an increase in Wii U sales, since consumers now (probably) know what the Wii U is and what it can do that the Wii can’t. I foresee an increase in Wii U sales, not sudden, but long-lasting and stable. Probably around 100-200 thousands of hardware sales every week in USA, 150-300 in Japan, and as always, low sales on UK, from 80 to 120 thousands of units pr week. Expect those numbers to nearly double at each new first party title launch, lasting for the month of release. I do not expect Nintendo to reach the mark of 9 millions by the end of the fiscal year, it’s too late to reach that number now. But I do expect about 6 millions at least, and from 18 to 23 millions by the end of the next fiscal year. 2014 will bring us X, Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem, Smash Bros., and many other exclusive titles, while the PS4 and Xbox One will suffer from lack of games. They still don’t have any system-sellers, and most games coming for Next Gen consoles are also coming for PS3 and Xbox 360. Without the retrocompatibility, gamers will not find interest on the new consoles for the upcoming games. I also expect the Wii U to be the best seller until 2016 for a few reasons: regarding the PS4, it’ll probably sell well in Japan if titles like Tales of and Final Fantasy come for it, probably even surpassing the Wii U in weekly sales for a long period, but aside from that and the commonly found on Sony consoles Japanese Dating Sims, there’s no reason to choose a $400,00 console over a $300,00 one. Expect most Japanese gamers to have both. In western countries, PS4 will also have the support of CoD games and alike, which will sell well among those who have the console, but will not drive sales forward. Regarding the Xbox One, expect it to sell horribly in every country except for USA, since it’s full of spoils for North Americans only. Most people won’t get a $500,00 machine so they won’t be able to use more than half of its functionalities. I do expect, though, for the XBONE to sell well if Microsoft decides to do what Nintendo made with the Wii U: separate it into the Basic and Deluxe versions. The Basic version being sold as a gaming machine with the basic gaming functionalities + the XBONE Kinect for a reduced price (around the same as the PS4) for other countries, but that would take away it’s selling point (all those spoils for the American market) wouldn’t it? Taking away what makes the Xbox One unique, expect the PS4 to surpass the XBONE easily outside of America, resulting on PS4 selling more on an overall worldwide count. The scenario is almost the same as the last generation: Nintendo making their own stuff while Sony and Microsoft stab each other, and that is exactly what made the Wii surpass both its rivals. To make things even better, the Wii U is following the 3DS path as well: Great launch, great period of low sales, a price cut following a new Mario Game and a Zelda remake while Sony claims to be victorious of this generation and bashing the Wii U as if its powerhouse – the PS4 – could outsell it with specs alone. When sales start skyrocketing for the Wii U, you can expect a better third-party support with proper multiplatform launches, but nothing extraordinary. Third-parties will still favor Sony and Microsoft over the course of this generation. My predictions for 2016 are this: – Wii U: 40 to 47 millions of units sold worldwide; sales increase after 2014’s E3 and the annoucement of a new Zelda game – PS4: from 37 to 40 millions of units sold worldwide; selling point being the third-party exclusives – Xbox One: 27 millions of units sold worldwide; 18-20 millions solely in USA. The console doesn’t have any attractive aside from the USA only features. I expect also for Sony to take the lead on making the first console of the next-next generation, depending on how the PS4 fairs this generation. Sony will either try to do something new – as they see specs aren’t the best selling point – probably related to the PSNetwork or they’ll invest solely on raw power making an extremely bulky and expensive console again. If they decide to go for the latter one, expect it to be the most expensive out there. I do believe though, despite their decision, they’ll be trying to be the pioneers of the next generation. I expect Microsoft to discontinue their gaming machines, making another multifunctional machine (this time around with even more functions, specially for you to integrate gaming into all your Microsoft devices, specially turning your PC into an Xbox regarding gaming), seeing how bad its console sold worldwide, making them focus solely on USA from there on – that is, of course, if they do not decide to launch a basic model of the XBONE. So, here are my predictions for the future. Let’s see whose is going to get closer to reality this generation: the well-experienced yet ignorant Pachter, or the amateur yet well-based myself? Relick I like your analysis although I have a few issues with it. You compared the WiiU vs PS4 to the 3DS vs Vita. However there are 2 games which make this comparison almost entirely void. Monster Hunter and Pokemon. MH because the majority of PSP owners in Japan bought it for MH and with it coming out on the 3DS there was no need to get a Vita. This limited potential Vita success to USA/Europe but thanks to abysmal word of mouth about the system and a high price tag in these regions it was always going to struggle to get off the ground. And then I don’t think I need to explain Pokemon. Briefly, there are literally (I don’t use the word exaggeratively) hundreds of thousands of people who buy a console for Pokemon and nothing else. Back to the WiiU and PS4, the Japanese market will be more divided and as you said will likely own both consoles due to wanted both console’s games. Elsewhere, the word of mouth/marketing for the PS4 isn’t bad, in fact it is the opposite with the WiiU often on the receiving end of abuse. For these reasons, I’m going to put at 2016 WiiU around the same as XBone and PS4 first, but none of them will be too far away from each other. Daniel Carvalho I understand your point, but I’m comparing the initial lifetime of both. the first year of the 3DS on the market was awful, until Nintendo launched the new Mario Land and Ocarina of Time 3D. Wii U’s sales would also have raised enough to shut everyone’s mouth with 3D World and Wind Waker HD if not for the yet-to-be-cleared confusion between Wii and Wii U. So, later releases like Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate and Pokemon are not accounted for. Aside from that, you too have valid arguments. I take your point, but I still keep mine. Relick When the 3DS came out, Nintendo advertised the 3D, and everyone thought that the 3DS would crash and burn. As soon as they started advertising the games and the console itself as the ‘3DS’ rather than the ‘DS with 3D’ it started selling like hotcakes. Microsoft is not advertising the Kinect as the core of their console. It may not be doing as well as the PS4 but it is still selling way better than the WiiU. I think there is some sort of link here. It is great to have a gimmick, it sets you apart from the competition – don’t make it the focus though. Make the whole picture the focus with the gimmick as an awesome bonus. Nintendo is advertising the gamepad as the core of their console. It’s always the WiiU with the ‘all new gamepad’ etc. or something about Miiverse or something about playing Wii games. This needs to stop. Advertise Call of Duty, Assassin’s Creed. Go all slick and cool with the ads, use less white and more black and make the WiiU look like a console for gamers during the CoD/AC ads, not for people who want hardware. Then, advertise SM3DW and WW HD, use white, have kids and adults and show much damn fun they are having with the thing. Show the console so they know what it looks like. Make it look like a console for families. Because when people get consoles, they don’t get them to just stare at the gamepad or play their Wii games when they have a Wii. They get it to play games on and if you advertise the gamepad they don’t know what they are going to play. The WiiU already has a library and the the capability to be both a mainstream gaming system AS WELL AS a family gaming system. But as the gamepad is the focus it will be neither and will be consigned to live with the Vita. ShinyLatios Nintendo is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMEEEEEDDDD again………….. David Trail I know RIGHT ; ) DOOMED lol! ShinyLatios i was sarcastic… Bobby P. The only reason this guy keeps his job is because he is STILL being used as a reference, not a good one, but yeah. David Trail I really don’t know how he has his job still lol??? extremethunder He still has a job because sadly, he generates hits. He is wrong on his predictions 99% of the time, but because of his outlandish predictions he gets alot of hits for gametrailers. David Trail Ha ha Michael Patcher is an idiot and knows nothing. What he is trying to say is that Wii U is going to sell more than 20 million units and be a runaway success. The man is always wrong! MetroidZero “Game analyst Micheal Pachter…” *Clicks back button* Ace I love the disclaimer. 😛 Daniel Gonzalez At least John was nice enough to give a heads up. AAAkabob Welcome to Wii U Daily where we patronize the people that keep us afloat. Wayne Beck For the Love of God John, Go Away. No one cares about your stupid doom and gloom articles. Stop Writing. ID_1324576890 Michael has too many bugs. We need to patch him up 😉 Adam Howell Was he coded by EA? Jelle Knibbe ZING! The Green Hylian I’m gonna bookmark this page so I can come back and have a good laugh in two years. Sheiky Baby I did the same about his 3DS comments.. Which led to my post, haha! 🙂 Sheiky Baby First he claims the 3DS was going to fail, and that Sony was going to steal Nintendo’s fan base with the Vita.. Then, the 3DS makes a great comeback and he has SHIT to say. Afterwards, he decides to start up again, by claiming Nintendo was going to Dreamcast themselves with the Wii U…. Then he calls it a failure… Now that the sales are starting to pick up, he claims it’s going to sell some. This fool has no idea of what these upcoming Nintendo titles do with their hardware. It’s easy to claim and predict that something that isn’t selling is meant to fail. I believe this generation of gaming might see a bit of a western decline. People are growing tired FPS, and the western audience is willing to decline it if a game like X gets some popularity and positive exposure. Super Mario 3D World, and Zelda ALBW got amazing reviews, which led to more sales; and these aren’t even the BIG titles yet. Mr. Patcher…. Just wait until E3 and you hear the reactions to the greatest Zelda game ever made. Be sure to hide and sink In your seat filled with embarrassment if you’re in attendance. This guy puts the Anal in Analyst. (Sorry, I had to :p ) andrewjcole I think he must roll a dice. 5 sides say “Nintendo Fails”, 1 side says “They Have Hope” Shy Guy I wonder what Michael Pachter’s favorite Wii U game is? andrewjcole [Patcher Voice] The Nintendo Pee U will sell only 20k units and it’s all doom and gloom. Did I mention that the internet is going to be shut down tomorrow and that the grass will turn purple? [Patcher Voice] Get a life, hoser. Rilo Essentially i joined this forum because i as a sega fan wanted to support nintendo wii u. Which is my first nintendo console. Even tho nin was my enemy. But i grew up and realised that sega and nin were the real systems and sony and ms make pc based consoles that have no soul. Im dissapointed in the writer of wii u daily puting an article of someone who is a fail of nostrdamus. Therefor i will look for another nintendo forum that at leastcomes with honest and good articles with firm prove. This is the last article i red on this site. It is guys like this that destroyed sega from within i dont want this. Not like this Shigeru Miyamoto yeah i read NintendoLife.com it’s wayy better. they actually know how to write articles over there. And they have game reviews too, unlike wii u daily. nexxus6 Why does this site find the need to constantly post articles about Pachter’s WiiU predictions? This is no longer news, but yet we constantly get to see an updated Pachter article. I am confused on why this guy gets so much attention from this site. Disclaimer or not, I think these articles are tired and played out. Let me quote Obi-Wan when I say “who is the more foolish? The fool or the the fool who follows him.” God1st I got my first wii u deluxe at my local gamestop today for 249 which I thought was a great bargain.I have been a nintendo fan for many years as well as sega and owned every console up until this point I decided to go with nintendo again this generation I think I waited for good reason now that all the great games are coming in 2014 can’t wait to play the new zelda. readypembroke New or used? God1st I got a deluxe wii u the nintendoland bundle brand new for 250 they are 50 percent off and the zelda bundle is still 300 readypembroke get any thing with it? God1st Yea the new super mario bros u ,call of duty ghosts,and assassins creed black flag for now. readypembroke Should also have gotten a Pro Controller and Super Mario 3D World. Also possibly a Wii Remote and Nunchuck. If you want a great very violent and bloody Wii game, get MadWorld. The motion controls are made very well. If you have a Wii, make sure you do a system transfer!! God1st Yea wish I would’ve kept my old wii I traded in for store credit at gamestop awhile back would love to play zelda twilight princess again which happens to be my favorite game of all time readypembroke you still casn get it God1st Brand new InterTreble The ultimate results ALWAYS differ significantly from your forecast, Mr Pachter. Since you are an analyst, and not a phychic, this means you are not able to do your job well. If you want to talk no sense about Wii U, as you did it about Wii and 3DS before, please, continue: you bring luck to Nintendo. The more you hate it the better for sales. And, listen, before telling stupidties, read the news at least: in Japan Wii U has increased its sales up to 100K. And then you say all these things?! Perfect timing, lol. Ok, you are not simply not abe to do your job, you are a real idiot! 🙂 HydePark1980 Well I’ll give him this, he sure is persistent in his quest to make us believe Nintendo will fail. Damian Waga Pachter, you said the Vita would outsell the 3ds, and that the mobile market would put it out of business altogether. You said last gen was the last gaming gen. And most embarrassingly, you actually think going mobile for a company like Nintendo is a good thing. Now you think Wii U will sell barely what the GameCube sold, despite there not being any hype around the others like the PS2 had. Be a comedian. Please, so people will have to deal with your crappy jokes other than gamers. ETeach “Game analyst Michael Patcher” – done reading now. Dango I’ll admit I really wanted a PS4. Especially after playing The Last of Us, Between Two Souls, Dead Space 3, and Arkham City on the PS3 this year. But after playing Super Mario Bros U on the Wii U we got this December, I forgot how much fun Nintendo was. Really happy we got it now, especially because many games are low priced right now. I’m looking forward to getting Arkham Origins for $30, Just Dance 4 for $20, Metroid Prime 3 for ~$20, FIFA Soccer 13 for $15, Smash Bros Brawl for $25, Super Mario 3D World and Pikmin 3 for $60 each. As for sales, I believe Nintendo will remain a strong competitor in mainstream gaming for this generation of consoles. Rinslowe “Disclaimer: this article contains the words “Michael Pachter”.” I got that far and decided is it worth reading further? Nah…. HypocritesRROD ” Disclaimer: this article contains the words “Michael Pachter”. Some readers might find these words disturbing. Proceed at your own risk.” Yes. Those words are disturbing. Because those words are SYNONYMOUS with Nintnendo-Hater. Robinson Dantas Camila Oliveir I predict that Mr Patcher will got a promotion when wii u sales beats 30 million units. At first during its lifetime the number will be under 25 million. Now until 2016 it will be under 20 million. Changing his mind softly is a good way to get a promotion. Or he can be fired… Jacob D. Taylor I almost didn’t read this because of the disclaimer, that’s how mad Pachter makes me want to scream. The interesting thing is this article… wasn’t that bad actually. He predicted low numbers, so what? He also mentioned there are factors at work and if any one of those is contradicted the tides could turn. I’ll admit, he might have bet between the PS4 and Xbone. Even Pachter is smart enough to admit to some pathetic degree that the XBone is at a disadvantage in popularity to the PS4 but it’s no surprise that he has a MASSIVE hard on for MIcrosoft and always has. He recently went on the defense seeking to rekindle at least a spark of his reputations stating that (I paraphrase) “Most of the time I am right”. Granted it’s easy to say ‘Guitar Hero III will do well’ and GTA 5 is coming in the next few years’. Those things are relatively obvious but his real predictions, the long term things for which analysts really exist…. he’s completely and utterly 100% wrong. Always. Anyway, my point is it wasn’t that bad this time around. At least he’s past the ‘Wii U is a joke’ stage. Nintendo Dragon This dick again. Worst ANALyst ever Rinslowe He’s an even worse kind – the despicable; ANAL-cyst… Nintendo Dragon ha Nintendo Dragon Honestly when I get the chance I’m going to buy another Wii U and make someone’s life. John These news comments are silly, don’t people realise it takes ages to create job descriptions, publish adverts etc etc… That said the recent issues have highlighted an already well known fact that Nintendos Network Infrastructure is rubbish and needs some serious investment and redesign to help speed things up and make it far more robust. Adrian Byrne No idea who this bloke is but he sounds a right knob gamesplayswill Michael Pachter is one of them people you want to throw in a room and beat the shit out of for at least 3 hours. Sonic 2099 The Hedgehog well in 2016 Nintendo will launch a new console wiimenonowiiu This guy should have gone to walmart target and best buy this holiday cause he would have noticed the wii u was selling big just on boxing day the line up was nuts with the great bundles wii u has, i should have waited a year before getting my wii u starwars360 HEADSHOT HIM!!!! Wii U will doing fine in their lifetime meanwhile 3DS will be dominate markets more then PS4 and Xbox One. My believe. Plus Wii U got much better sales than GameCube. 😛 Japan will see Wii U, PS4, 3DS and PS Vita great markets and Xbox One will be slight bit better then Xbox 360 sales but still struggle. I believe it is happen. Nintendo and Sony will continue fine with Wii U and PS Vita with massive sales around 3DS and PS4. 🙂 DC777 Pretty silly analysis as I doubt ANY of the new consoles will reach 20 million in just the next 24 months. Why these constant bashing articles…still? The Wii U did not sell well last year because it had no hype and no “must have” new games. People just were more interested in waiting to see what the big 3 were going to put out. Gamers buy systems at launch. Normal people just don’t go whipping out $4-500+ to drop on new game systems everyday. Christmas and launches of all three are in the past, now we will see which sells steadily. Nintenjoe82 I don’t think there is anything silly in what he said, it’s just silly that WiiUDaily feels the need to report it every time he farts. It sold 4 million in 1 year so under 20 million in just over 3 doesn’t sound crazy to me. TurokJr He said: “This is our forecast” then he said “but depends of these factors”. Is like saying , for example, “The Colts can win the game today if they score more points than the other team; if not then the Colts looses or draw”. YiyeUniverseMB I think any article involving MP should have “Analyst” in inverted commas… Sdudyoy I know It’s sunday, but you guys should report that the E-shop is back up, (Even though everyone probably already noticed). Flawless Victory Nintendo eShop is back online. Fred thanks! TwinTails This basket case honestly thinks the Wii U will average at 96,000 units a week…over four years? Unless he thinks Nintendo will stop advertising and drop game support all together, he must be smoking some serious sh#t. This isn’t even trolling at this point, it’s just flat out insulting. XD WiiUPS4 masterRace another poor article by John Kinsley! Nathan Verbois Actually, the most controversial part of his prediction was left out of this article. “Our overall forecast is based upon several assumptions: first, we expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with PS4 pricing in the U.S. dropping from $399.99 at launch to $299.99 by 2016 and with Xbox One pricing in the U.S. dropping from $499.99 at launch to $349.99 by 2016; second, we expect new release software pricing to remain at $59.99 in the U.S. for the next three years; [finally, we expect Nintendo to continue producing the Wii U.] Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast.” I couldn’t help but laugh at the bracketed part of that statement, as despite its very neutral tone, it completely sums up his thoughts on Nintendo’s Wii U. Even if the Wii U manages a complete 3DS turnaround and trounces the competition, I imagine Michael will be unhappy with the result. Pachter may be the most vocal of the analysts out there, but he’s not alone in his assessments. The problem with analysts and why even the best of them are only right (at best) 51% of the time, is that they can only crunch hard data accurately. If they even do factor in the intangibles (such as social mood, emotional brand equity/opportunity cost, etc.), they are far from finding the right formula and it often equates to a shot in the dark. RARE Is being an analyst even a real job? Daniel Gonzalez Indeed it is. RARE What are the qualifications? Calling yourself an analyst? Daniel Gonzalez Yes, I am an analyst. I think most of us are more than capable of doing that ourselves. A professional one? No, I’m not. That’s the difference. As what are the exact qualifications? I could care less since it’s not my line of work, but you do need a degree. My response is just the fact that it is classified as a real job. 😛 RARE Just for clarification, I wasn’t actually asking if it was a real job. It was a joke at Pachter’s expense. Sorry if I offended you. But I’ve been watching Pachter’s videos on YouTube and his allegations can be pretty ridiculous, so its funny that he could actually be paid for this. Daniel Gonzalez I wasn’t offended. I just answered your question. Good to know it was a joke. I was counting on it. 😛 Pachter does what he does cause he gets paid to do it. So I find it funny when people online get upset(not saying you) over his predictions. Controversy just makes more money than actual news. Linkamus Bachelors Degree in Business with an emphasis on Statistical Analysis. Love him or hate him, the dude is mostly right when it comes to trending and forecasting. He’s a douche about it yes, but he is actually doing the work. Jacob Salinas take his advice with a huge grain of salt he said back when the psvita was announced he said that the vita and smart phones will bury the 3ds and nintendo will abandon it yeah right, the 2ds is outselling the psvita shaun Nintendo just needs that “killer app” that’s unique to the system. Wii had wii sports original DS started selling once brain age arrived. Game boy – Tetris. NES – Mario. N can do it. The only thing X1 and PS4 have are dual platform shooters; no originality. The system with the most unique software wins. Daniel Gonzalez I would agree if you were talking about Microsoft, but you’re way off on Sony’s PS4. I don’t know why people are under the impression that Sony is just like Microsoft. From someone who has a PS3, I can tell you that shooters aren’t the only genre Sony dabbles into. That’s like saying saying Nintendo only makes platform games. Lol. Regardless, that was poor wording on your part. Unique software comes from all platforms. Also, X1 and PS4 are just beginning, so that’s quite an unfair comparison don’t ya think? I think so. No one wins because it’s not about winning, it’s about getting the games we want. 😛 Linkamus You make a good point. But you also fail to point out that MS and SONY also know the American market. Its primarily dominated by shooters and sports titles. They are only doing what they need to do to sell in the region. Hence why Japan gets an overwhelming amount of RPGs… 80% if which never make it here. That’s their gig, and these companies know ours. Edit: I also failed to mention how Nintendo is the only company that doesn’t care what the market wants. They put out their games… that’s all. Love it or hate it, that’s what they give you. They could really care less about Americas want for shooters and racing games… unless its Mario Kart you want. Daniel Gonzalez “I also failed to mention how Nintendo is the only company that doesn’t care what the market wants. They put out their games… that’s all. Love it or hate it, that’s what they give you. They could really care less about Americas want for shooters and racing games… unless its Mario Kart you want.” Which is very poor on their end. I like that they don’t care what the market thinks, but that also why those who love those games aren’t Nintendo fans. I do enjoy a few games like Mario Kart or Smash Bros, but I outgrew a lot of Nintendo games. If Nintendo isn’t going to give those gamers what they want, we find it elsewhere. It’s their loss as far as I’m concerned. For the record, I’m not shooter happy. I play a variety of games of different genre. Mccloud88 Hahaha funny disclaimer. Cole Brinley Seriously…Why even right an article about anything Michael Pachter says, he’s an idiot… The world would be a better place if he was mute. I’m just saying… On a list of priorities for the world; shutting up Michael Pachter comes before solving world hunger… ltsJoeMama I feel like I’m the only person who has never heard of the guy.. superhatlessmario2 . I think patcher is part of the problem in why the wii u hasn’t been selling as well as it should. Linkamus Because most gamers are too stupid to think for themselves. This cluster of nonsense and ass gas is also where fanboys are born. ZeldaFan83 I’m not a fan of Patcher but his sales prediction aren’t unreasonable. Wii U sales after 13 months is 4.3 million units. 2016 is 2 years away and a lot can happen in that amount of time and the Wii U is still in it’s early days of it’s life cycle. Many more Wii U’s can be sold by 2016 as sales pick up with more high quality releases of more major franchises like Zelda, Metroid, Smash Bros., Mario Kart, etc. and also Next Gen 3rd party titles like Watch Dogs and others to follow. I don’t like Patcher but his predictions aren’t unreasonable and you can’t just write the guy off and say he’s an idiot (while I do think he is regarding Nintendo in the marketplace), his prediction can be accurate. If nintendo quadrupled it’s sales in 24 months it would still fall short of 20 million. I hope the Wii U sales pick up drastically but for now it’s not looking so good and a lot of that is due to consumer confusion. Here’s to hoping that Nintendo has a much greater year with the Wii U in 2013. DVE I put a 2 billion dollar bounty on this man. Any participants? Christopher Westcott Is he the only analyst in the industry? Every article has a reference to this guy and I would just like to see another opinion because he is one voice among many… Diversity of thought is good… Nintendoro Whether we like this guy or not, he’s certainly got the point. I’ll be very happy if I see Wii U surpassing 10 million units. iamserious Dude it’s at 5 mil as of now. In 1 year it sold that much. It will easily sell over 10 mil before the end of next year. Jorge Aguirre Michael Patcher: the stupidest Nintendo analyst of all time (imo). ThisGuy18 He definitely need a break from predicting. Can’t remember the last time he was right James Enk a good time to bash the WiiU is when it starts to get some traction, right? iamserious In other unrelated news: the Wii U is picking up some great momentum in sales this past week. According to VGchartz, it has sold some 319K consoles worldwide, just edging out the XBOX1. 🙂 ltsJoeMama So this is starting to become a daily thing, huh? I swear every analyst is like.. http://i.imgur.com/B9pEQo0.gif Christopher Acuna Pachter is a tool. Cahone Replace gamepad with pro pad, drop system down to 175$ and watch 20million extra units be sold ltsJoeMama 175? Yeah, sure! Why not!? I’m sure Nintendo would be thrilled to lose tons of cash! tookyfooky 40 million ps4’s by 2016 ok… bizzy gie This is absolutely absurd. Typical. The Wolf 47 Well if it continues to sell 5 million a year, then yeah, by the end of 2014 it’ll have 20 million units.